Weekly Cashew Report: Week 40 2025

Benin

Weather: Northern/central belts were dry against average: Parakou logged 33.9 mm (−17.6 mm, −34% vs LTA), Bassila 35.1 mm (−12.9 mm, −27%), and Savalou 41.8 mm (−11.2 mm, −21%). By contrast, Abomey was wetter at 51.9 mm (+11.7 mm, +29%). Temperatures were near seasonal throughout. Benin Weather Information – CropGPT*

Yield 2025 (harvest year): 430 kg/ha

Forecast 2026: 411 kg/ha (no change from last week).

 

Brazil

Weather: Mostly light rainfall along the Northeast, with several coastal sites running below normal: Ilhéus recorded 9.5 mm (−11.1 mm, −54%), Natal 4.1 mm (−3.4 mm, −45%), and Porto Seguro 15.3 mm (−3.9 mm, −20%). Inland stations stayed very dry (near zero), with modest warmth in Piripiri/Campo Maior (+0.8 to +0.9 °C). Brazil Weather Information – CropGPT

Yield 2024 (harvest year): 358 kg/ha

Forecast 2025: 290 to 300 kg/ha (no change from last week – expected to be off-year in alternate bearing cycle).

 

Cambodia

Weather: Exceptionally wet in the northeast and central highlands: Andoung Meas saw 222 mm (+147 mm, +195%) and Ou Chum 198 mm (+122 mm, +161%), while Chey Saen reached 130 mm (+55 mm, +73%). Several lowland districts were also above normal by +20–40%. Mean temperatures were generally 1.5–1.7 °C below average in the wetter pockets. Cambodia Weather Information – CropGPT

Production 2025 (harvest year): 850,000 tons

Forecast 2026: Still insufficient data following implementation of changes to government subsidies (no change from last week).

 

India

Weather: Konkan districts were much cooler than average: Ratnagiri and Sindhudurg ran ~−2.2 °C vs LTA, with rainfall close to norms (Ratnagiri 113 mm, +5 mm, +5%). On the east coast, Ganjam (Odisha) was wet at 101.5 mm (+45.9 mm, +83%), while Visakhapatnam (AP) was drier at 60.7 mm (−13.5 mm, −18%); Srikakulam and Puri were near to modestly above average. The consistent temperature signal across these cashew belts was cooler than normal (−1.5 to −2.0 °C). India Weather Information – CropGPT

Production 2025 (harvest year): ~800,000 tons

Forecast 2026: 786,000 tons (slight increase as the rainfall reduces back towards the expected norms).

 

Indonesia

Weather: A cool, wet pulse hit Mataram (W. Nusa Tenggara): 54.3 mm (+28.9 mm, +113%) with mean temps −3.2 °C vs LTA. Mamuju Utara (Sulawesi) was a touch drier (40.9 mm, −14%), while Kupang (E. Nusa Tenggara) had 9.8 mm (+23%)—totals still modest. Elsewhere across Bali/East Java (e.g., Banyuwangi +27%) rainfall was slightly above normal and temperatures near seasonal. Indonesia Weather Information – CropGPT

Yield 2023 (harvest year, 2024 not available): 366 kg/ha

Forecast 2025: 385 kg/ha (slight increase from last week due to moderate rainfall).

 

Ivory Coast

Weather: Savanes (Korhogo) was notably wetter at 62.3 mm (+17.7 mm, +40%), while Zanzan (Bondoukou) trended drier at 44.8 mm (−7.1 mm, −14%). Woroba (Séguéla) hovered close to average (−8%), and central Bouaké was slightly above at 66.7 mm (+10%). Temperatures were a little cooler than normal (roughly −1 °C). Ivory Coast Weather Information – CropGPT

Production 2025 (harvest year): 1,250,000 tons

Forecast 2026: Early season projections indicate a decrease of 10 to 15% (no change from last week).

 

Nigeria

Weather: Oyo split: Ibadan North-West came in 35.6 mm (−18.6 mm, −34%), while Ogbomosho North was near normal (42.5 mm, +4%). Kogi was mixed—Lokoja 40.0 mm (+5.2 mm, +15%) vs Kabba/Bunu ~flat to LTA. Enugu leaned drier—Nsukka 64.6 mm (−9%) and Enugu East 63.5 mm (−14%)—with several sites −1.5–1.6 °C cooler than average. Onitsha South stood out wetter at 72.3 mm (+13.4 mm, +23%). Nigeria Weather Information – CropGPT

Yield 2026 (harvest year): 447 kg/ha (down 0.5% from last week as mixed weather signals drive some uncertainty).

 

Tanzania

Weather: Seasonally light totals ran below average across the south: Mtwara 1.6 mm (−30%), Masasi 0.5 mm (−63%), and Lindi 2.4 mm (−21%). The Tanga–Muheza corridor was much drier—Tanga 3.1 mm (−8.0 mm, −72%) and Muheza 4.7 mm (−13.5 mm, −74%). Temperatures were close to normal. Tanzania Weather Information – CropGPT

Production 2025 (harvest year): 528,000 tonnes

Forecast 2026: 560,000 tonnes (slight increase as rainfall totals, whilst light, remain close to expected norms).

Comment: Already in early August our models signaled that Tanzania’s 2026 crop would be larger than last year’s. This positive outlook is now being echoed on the ground, where some reports even suggest a harvest of 600,000 tonnes or more. While it is premature to confirm such higher figures, it is encouraging to see early market sentiment aligning with our initial forecast. We continue to collect additional data to refine the picture.

 

Vietnam

Weather: Widespread heavy rain and cooler conditions in key cashew provinces: Đồng Xoài (Bình Phước) 147.0 mm (+58.8 mm, +67%) and Buôn Ma Thuột (Đắk Lắk) 140.3 mm (+90.9 mm, +184%). In Đồng Nai, Long Khánh reached 140.1 mm (+50.5 mm, +56%) and Biên Hòa 102.6 mm (+22.7 mm, +28%); nearby Pleiku also ran high at 135.7 mm (+57.8 mm, +74%). Mean temperatures across these sites were −1.4–1.7 °C below normal. Vietnam Weather Information – CropGPT

Yield 2025 (harvest year): 1,200 kg/ha

Forecast 2026: 1,453 (small adjustment as rainfall and temperatures depart from long term averages).

 

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