Tanzania: Cashew Auction Delay Amid Post-Election Unrest

Tanzania’s cashew season has opened under unusual circumstances. The first auction of the 2025/26 marketing year, originally scheduled for October 31 in Tandahimba (Mtwara region), was postponed following unrest after the country’s general elections.
According to Expana/Urner Barry (Foodmarket), traders and cooperative unions confirmed the delay, while the Cashew Board of Tanzania (CBT) has yet to announce a new start date. The Tandahimba & Newala Cooperative Union (TANECU) was due to launch the season’s first sales but is now waiting for security conditions to stabilize.

“Violence will not continue for too long… this is unlikely to influence the market unless the auction start is delayed beyond next week,” one broker told Foodmarket.

 

Security Situation

Post-election protests erupted in several regions of Tanzania following the October 29 vote, with curfews and roadblocks reported in Dar es Salaam, Mtwara, and other areas (Reuters).
Reuters confirmed a nationwide dusk-to-dawn curfew (6 p.m. – 6 a.m.), while both the UK Foreign Office and the U.S. Embassy warned of travel restrictions and a temporary internet shutdown.
Despite the tension, authorities expect “normalcy to return shortly,” and there have been no closures or damage reported at Mtwara Port or major warehouse sites.

 

Logistics & Short-Term Impact

The unrest briefly halted online auction operations at the Tanzania Mercantile Exchange (TMX), which relies on internet connectivity for bidding.
Fuel and cash shortages were reported (UK FCDO advisory), but exports and port operations continued under security oversight.
Historically, similar disruptions — such as the TANECU one-week delay in previous seasons — have resolved quickly, suggesting limited long-term execution risk.

 

Market Response

Market participants describe the impact as “muted”.
Cashew kernel prices in Vietnam and India have remained stable, and buyers are not shifting sourcing yet. Expana and the African Cashew Alliance (ACA) both note that a short delay of a few days is unlikely to move the market, though traders are watching for a possible RCN (Raw Cashew Nut) premium if auctions remain paused beyond mid-November.
Mozambique’s new harvest is underway, and West African exporters (Benin, Côte d’Ivoire) still hold some stocks, providing supply coverage.

 

HSAT Weather & Data Insight

According to HSAT’s Week 45 weather analysis (full report 4 November 2025), rainfall in southern Tanzania (Mtwara, Lindi, Ruvuma) remained near seasonal averages, while northern coastal areas (Tanga, Muheza) were 10–20 mm wetter than usual.
HSAT data shows 2025 production at 528,000 tonnes, with a 2026 forecast of 581,000 tonnes — reflecting roughly a 10% increase if favorable weather persists.
The current disruption is therefore viewed as operational and temporary, not structural or climatic.

 

For now, no cause for concern

Weather conditions remain stable, port operations are intact, and the auction system is expected to resume once local security improves.
Market participants continue to emphasize that the fundamentals of Tanzania’s cashew sector — crop size, quality, and export demand — remain strong, and that the recent unrest is unlikely to have lasting market effects

 

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