In early February, we already pointed to increasing risks for early cashew supply from Ivory Coast (Cashew Harvest Nears as Weather Signals Raise Early Supply Risks in Ivory Coast). At the time, the primary concern was persistent dryness across several production zones during a crucial period of flowering and nut setting, which jeopardized effective yields and early quality.
The most recent mid-February reports signal a shift in the weather risk. Although Ivory Coast is officially in its dry season (mid-November to March), the weather now points to a High risk for the 2025/26 harvest. The primary issue is now unusual and significantly elevated rainfall in key growing areas during the critical phase of nut maturation and early harvest (CropGPT).
Moisture Threatens Quality
Ivory Coast is the world’s largest producer and exporter of raw cashew nuts. Unusual rainfall and resulting humidity in the dry season create direct execution risks. Cashew nuts must be dried after harvest and kept dry to preserve the kernel quality.
Moisture during harvest and drying increases the risk of mold, quality deterioration, and slower movement to purchasing points and factories. The industry explicitly states that moisture content over 10% increases exposure to mold, while nuts should be dried to about 7-10% moisture (African Cashew Alliance). Persistent positive temperature anomalies in the region amplify the risk, as the ‘warm and wet’ combination accelerates the rate of deterioration under high humidity.
Regional Risk Analysis
The weather conditions in the main growing regions lead to clear risk classifications:
- Bondoukou (High Risk): Experienced rainfall during a period when dry conditions are required, which significantly increases the risk of mold development and quality deterioration during maturation and early harvest.
- Bouaké (High Risk): Significantly more rainfall was recorded during the critical dry period. This creates a high risk of quality deterioration and delays in harvest logistics. The combination of moisture and warmth increases susceptibility to fungal diseases.
- Korhogo (Moderate Risk): Temperatures were higher here, which can lead to heat stress during nut development. Rainfall remained low, which is generally favorable for drying and early procurement.
These recent moisture issues follow earlier unfavorable signals, including reports from Expana that the northern cashew regions already received roughly twice their normal rainfall in December, which can damage blossoms and encourage fungal diseases (Expana).
Implications for Trade
The unusual and excessive rainfall in key cashew growing areas during the maturation and early harvest phase is likely to reduce overall nut quality and delay initial supply. Even if the total production volume remains robust, this may lead to:
- A lower share of ‘premium’ lots.
- Delays in early shipments.
- More re-drying, re-sorting, and rejection at buying points.
- A temporary tightness in the supply of exportable quality.
The market remains focused on whether these early season conditions in Ivory Coast translate into measurable effects on yield or quality as the harvest begins. Key indicators to monitor in the coming weeks are whether the rainfall persists, reports of broader price discounts for ‘wet’ or ‘inferior’ nuts, and increased complaints from processors about mold or discoloration.
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