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Imports Up, Prices Up: Vietnam’s Cashew Market Defies Expectations

Vietnam, the world’s largest cashew processor, remains heavily reliant on raw cashew nut (RCN) imports while continuing to dominate kernel exports. The latest VINACAS August 2025 report highlights strong growth on both fronts, although market insiders suggest actual flows may have been even higher than reported.

Raw Cashew Nut Imports (Jan – Aug 2025)

  • Volume: 2,284,168.33 tons (+16.98% YoY)
  • Turnover: USD 3,459,152,771.14 (+47.78% YoY)
  • Average Import Price: USD 1,543.25/ton (+29.56% YoY)

 

By Country:

  • Cambodia: 964,954.71 tons (42.25% share)
  • Ivory Coast: 412,246.12 tons (18.05% share)
  • Others (incl. Tanzania, Indonesia, etc.): 906,967.50 tons (39.71% share)

 

Cashew Kernel in testa (borma cashews) Imports (Jan–Aug 2025)

  • Volume: 70,033.40 tons (–24.19% YoY)
  • Turnover: USD 465,494,043.24 (–14.27% YoY)
  • Average Import Price: USD 6,635.47/ton (+14.91% YoY)
 

Cashew Kernel Exports (Jan–Aug 2025)

  • Volume: 498,011.78 tons (–4.44% YoY)
  • Turnover: USD 3,388,084,036.63 (+13.48% YoY)
  • Average Export Price: USD 6,816.45/ton (+20.06% YoY)

 

Historical Comparison – Imports 2024 vs. 2025 (Jan – Aug)

  • 2024 (Jan–Aug): ~1,951,000 tons, ~USD 1,190/ton (back-calculated from VINACAS YoY data).
  • 2025 (Jan–Aug): 2,284,168 tons, USD 1,543/ton.

This confirms a significant jump in both volume and price.

 

Market Observations vs. Official Data

While VINACAS reports +17% YoY growth in RCN imports, market participants suggest that actual inflows may have been closer to +20–25%, especially from Cambodia.

Supporting signals:

  • Cambodia’s export flows: Cambodia’s exports were likely above 1 million tons by July/August, slightly higher than VINACAS records.

  • Price vs. volume paradox: Normally, higher import volumes would ease prices. But 2025 saw rising volumes (+17%) and rising prices (+30%) simultaneously, indicating tighter real supply than reflected in official numbers.

  • HSAT CropGPT forecasts: Like earlier informed in our Weekly Cashew Reports. Forecasts anticipated stronger Cambodian output and constrained Ivorian supply earlier in the season, patterns that are now reflected in official customs data.

 

Why This Matters

For traders, the gap between official customs data and market reality can be decisive. If the true import volume is higher, price signals may be distorted — creating risks for those relying only on traditional statistics.

At Rotterdam Commodity Trading, together with HSAT’s CropGPT platform, we help bridge this gap by providing real-time forecasts and early warning signals before official numbers are published.

Follow our Weekly Cashew Reports to stay ahead of the market — with insights that confirm, challenge, or anticipate official data.