La Niña and the Cashew Belt: Who Wins, Who Loses?

La Niña and the Cashew Belt: Who Wins, Who Loses?

After several years of shifting weather patterns, the prospect of another La Niña raises a simple but important question for the cashew market:

Will global cashew crops benefit – or suffer – if La Niña returns?

La Niña is not a storm but a large-scale climate pattern driven by cooler-than-normal waters in the eastern Pacific. It changes rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide. For cashew – a crop that depends on well-timed rain, a clear dry season, and stable temperatures – those shifts can be either a blessing or a curse.

Recent ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) context. The most recent strong multi-year La Niña event ran from late 2020 through early 2023.
After that, conditions moved to ENSO-neutral in 2024 and early 2025.
Forecasts by World Meteorological Organization and others suggest a 60 %+ chance of La Niña re-emerging around late 2025 (e.g., September–December) and possibly carrying into early 2026.
In other words: we may soon be entering a new La Niña phase — making the patterns discussed below especially relevant for the next crop cycles.

Below is a summary of how La Niña typically affects the main cashew origins, based solely on recent seasons and documented impacts.

 

West Africa: Mostly on the Winning Side

Ivory Coast – clear beneficiary

Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cashew producer, has so far been a net winner under La Niña.

• In a recent La Niña phase, production rose by around 6% to just over 1.0 million tons, helped by timely and abundant rainfall in the northern cashew belt.
• The pattern was textbook-favourable: a strong rainy season giving enough moisture for vegetative growth and nut filling, followed by a clean, dry period in November–February for flowering and fruit set.

As long as the dry season remains intact and the onset of the rains doesn’t suddenly jump forward into the harvest window, La Niña tends to support high crop potential in Ivory Coast.

Nigeria – also positive

Nigeria’s cashew belt in the Middle Belt region has likewise gained from recent La Niña episodes.

• In one La Niña year, raw cashew nut (RCN) output increased by almost 15%, from roughly 240,000 tons to about 275,000 tons.
• The main driver was reliable, well-distributed rainfall during the growing season and relatively mild temperatures, which reduced heat stress and early nut drop.

For Nigeria, La Niña typically means more water and fuller nuts, with only localised risks from flooding and storms. As long as heavy rainfall does not hit during the sun-drying and collection period, the net effect is clearly positive.

Benin – harder to read

Benin sits between these two success stories but has shown a more mixed response.

• Cashew areas in the north benefit from additional rain in La Niña years, but timing and intensity matter. Well-spread moisture is helpful; heavy bursts or showers during flowering are not.
• In a recent La Niña phase, national production actually fell by around 8%, from 240,000 to 220,000 tons, despite the general signal of stronger monsoon rains.

The conclusion for Benin is uncertain: La Niña can improve water availability, but irregular rainfall and surprise showers in what should be the dry flowering period can still take the edge off the crop.

 

East Africa: Tanzania Stands Out

Tanzania – strong crops despite La Niña

Tanzania’s cashew calendar is different: trees flower around August–September and are harvested from October to January.

• In recent La Niña years, the country delivered excellent crops, with production in top seasons around 238,000 tons – very strong by historical standards.
• The key is that La Niña tends to strengthen the main rains from December to April, supporting nut development, while the critical flowering period (August–October) stays largely dry.

The main side-effect is logistical rather than agronomic: heavier or prolonged rains can stretch the harvest and auction season into January. But overall, La Niña has so far been clearly favourable for Tanzania’s cashew output, and ambitious production targets for coming seasons are built on the assumption of continued good rainfall.

 

South & Southeast Asia: Weather Risk Concentrated in the Flowering Window

India – more water, but flowering under pressure

India’s cashew belt stretches along both coasts. The crop relies on a strong summer monsoon for growth followed by a dry, sunny winter for flowering and nut set.

La Niña typically strengthens the monsoon, which:

• Helps vegetative growth – trees look greener, water stress is reduced.
• But increases the risk that the wet season runs long or comes back in pulses during flowering (January–March in many regions).

In recent La Niña years:

• India saw unseasonal rainfall and cloud cover in flowering, especially in southern states, leading to 30–50% yield losses in some orchards.
• At a national level, production dropped by roughly 8.5%, from about 738,000 tons to 675,000 tons, despite professional cultivation in many areas.

For India, La Niña is therefore best described as “slightly negative”: the extra monsoon rain is helpful, but if showers intrude into the winter flowering period, overall yield suffers.

Vietnam – heavy losses when the dry season fails

Vietnam may be the most vulnerable major origin under La Niña.

Cashew here relies on a sharp transition:

• A wet season (May–October) fills soils and drives growth.
• A long, dry, sunny period from November onwards triggers flowering and supports nut set.

La Niña disrupts this pattern in multiple ways:

• The wet season often becomes wetter and longer, with showers spilling into December and even January.
• There have been seasons where “never before seen” rainfall during flowering hit key regions such as Gia Lai and Bình Phước.
• Growers reported massive blossom drop, poor nut set and follow-up heat shocks – swings from wet and cool to hot and dry.

The result has been dramatic in some areas:

• In certain districts, yields fell by 50–70% compared with normal years.
• On a national level, one recent La Niña year saw Vietnamese production fall by about 12.5%.

Vietnam often has to import additional RCN from neighbours to keep processing capacities running when local crops fail. In short, La Niña is clearly negative for Vietnamese cashews, primarily through flowering damage, disease pressure and irregular harvest timing.

Cambodia – also on the losing side

Cambodia’s cashew belt, largely in the east and northeast, has had a run of difficult seasons linked to unseasonal weather.

During recent La Niña phases:

• A bumper crop in 2021 (around 0.9–1.1 million tons) was followed by steep declines in 2022 and 2023.
• Farmers faced “unexpected rains” during the normally dry flowering period, causing blossom rot and drop.
• Heavy rains also hit during the harvest and drying period, leading to quality losses, transport issues and higher rejection rates.
• Industry sources estimate 10–30% yield reductions in multiple seasons, and some growers have abandoned orchards after repeated failures.

Cambodia’s cashew variety and production system are clearly sensitive to excess moisture, especially in the dry season. Under La Niña, risk skews strongly negative.

Indonesia – too much of a good thing

Indonesia’s cashew regions, especially in the drier eastern islands, normally benefit from a clear split between wet and dry seasons. La Niña, however, tends to make the wet season wetter, longer and more erratic.

Recent La Niña years brought:

• Better water supply for marginal, semi-arid areas – a theoretical positive.
• But also extended rains into the period that should turn dry, delaying or weakening the flowering signal.
• Higher incidence of fungal diseases and insect pressure in warm, humid conditions.
• Later harvests and disappointing yields, with trade sources explicitly noting that Indonesian production was lower “because of La Niña”.

The net effect in Indonesia is negative: the benefit of extra rain is more than offset by disease, delayed flowering and harvest disruptions.

 

The Americas: Brazil Carries the Risk

Brazil – La Niña cuts into production

Brazil’s commercial cashew areas are concentrated in the northeast. They normally depend on a rainy season from roughly February to May, followed by a stable dry period for flowering.

La Niña, however, tends to rearrange rainfall in South America:

• The northeast can receive heavy rain or prolonged showers.
• Other parts of Brazil face drought.

In cashew terms, the main problems are:

• Extended rains into or beyond the normal wet season, delaying the onset of dry weather that is needed for uniform flowering.
• Very heavy downpours leading to waterlogging, erosion and disease.

In a recent La Niña episode:

• Brazil’s cashew production fell by about 26%, from 135,000 tons to around 100,000 tons.
• Growers reported that rains continued “beyond the normal period”, interfering with flowering and nut development.

For Brazil, La Niña has proven to be clearly negative overall, especially when the wet season simply refuses to end.

 

Summary: A Split Cashew World Under La Niña

If we simplify the picture, La Niña divides the cashew world into two broad groups:

• Likely beneficiaries:
  • Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Tanzania
    These origins tend to gain from stronger rainy seasons without losing their critical dry flowering period, resulting in higher or at least stable crops.
• Likely losers:
  • Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Brazil, India (mildly)
    Here La Niña typically means rain at the wrong time – especially during flowering and early fruit set – plus more disease pressure and uneven harvests.
• Unclear case:
  • Benin
    Production can improve with better rainfall but recent evidence shows that poorly timed or uneven rains can still drive yields lower.

These contrasting responses underline how important seasonal timing is for cashew trees. Similar amounts of rainfall can have very different consequences depending on when they fall within each origin’s crop cycle.

 

Stay Ahead of Weather-Driven Cashew Risk

If you’re buying, selling or processing cashews, you can’t afford to treat La Niña as background noise. It’s a structural driver of crop size, quality and pricing power across origins.

To go beyond high-level patterns and track how current rainfall, temperature and seasonal anomalies are shaping each origin’s crop in real time, you need consistent, data-backed monitoring.

To access full forecasts and detailed data on weather and its impact on cashew crops, subscribe to our cashew intelligence service powered by CropGPT.

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