Tanzania’s 700,000-Ton Cashew Goal Faces Reality Check

The Cashewnut Board of Tanzania (CBT) has set an ambitious target of 700,000 tons for the 2025/26 season, aiming to nearly double production from just two years ago.

This follows a mixed track record: in 2023/24 the country set itself a goal of 400,000 tons but managed only 305,014 tons. In 2024/25, CBT reports production of 528,260 tons—a major rebound but still far below the latest 700,000-ton aspiration.

 

Independent Forecasts Tell a Different Story

While official announcements reflect optimism, data-driven forecasting paints a more cautious picture. According to our Weekly Cashew Report, powered by HSAT’s CropGPT, Tanzania’s 2026 harvest is currently projected at 559,000 tons.

That would mark solid year-on-year growth from 2024/25, but it falls well short of CBT’s 700,000-ton target. The gap highlights the difference between policy ambitions and field realities, where weather variability, resource constraints, and processing bottlenecks continue to limit output.

 

Why It Matters

For global buyers—Tanzania’s cashew output plays a critical role in raw nut supply. Missing the 700,000-ton goal could keep upward pressure on prices and reinforce dependence on West African origins.

At Rotterdam Commodity Trading, our mission is to help stakeholders separate aspiration from reality. By combining satellite imagery, ground-level surveys, and AI-powered yield models, we provide forecasts that help the market anticipate risks months before official numbers arrive.

Follow our Weekly Cashew Report to track Tanzania’s production outlook and prepare for shifts in global cashew supply!