Tanzania’s 2025/26 cashew season is advancing at a pace that underscores the country’s growing weight in the global RCN landscape. Early auctions have moved substantial volumes in a short period, official projections point toward one of the largest harvests ever recorded, and buyers are navigating the season with unusual caution as both supply and quality dynamics evolve.
A Powerful Start: Auction Volumes Rise Faster Than Last Year
Despite a delayed opening caused by political disruptions, the first auctions of the season moved sharply higher volumes than the same period in 2024/25.
The first TMX auction of November sold 26,254 tons, a figure that immediately set a stronger trajectory for the season (Tanzania Daily News).
Within weeks, the MAMCU cooperative alone had sold 82,000 tons, reinforcing what traders described as a “healthy flow” of arrivals into the auction system (Daily News).
This faster early momentum matters. It suggests not only strong production but also efficient mobilization of nuts into the market, a critical factor for processors depending on steady and predictable flows.
Up to 375,000 Tons Already Auctioned
Our market sources now report that approximately 365,000–375,000 metric tons of raw cashews have already been auctioned across Tanzania, a figure far higher than officially published regional totals.
According to multiple traders active in the Tanzanian market, cumulative sales have accelerated sharply in recent weeks, with some estimates suggesting that up to 360,000 mt have been sold and an additional 25,000–30,000 mt currently remains unsold but already delivered into the system.
While no nationwide totals have yet been released by the Cashewnut Board of Tanzania, these trade estimates indicate that well over one-third of the expected crop has already passed through auction platforms, reinforcing the view that the 2025/26 season is tracking toward a very large overall harvest.
A 600,000+ Ton Crop Looks Increasingly Likely
The early volume data aligns with both government targets and independent trade estimates.
The Cashew Board of Tanzania (CBT) has set an ambitious harvest goal of 700,000 tons for 2025/26 (Daily News). While this figure exceeds what many in the industry consider realistic, the underlying message is unmistakable: Tanzania expects, and is on track for, a massive crop.
Earlier this season, we highlighted that the 700,000-ton target would face structural constraints such as farmer practices, weather risk, and post-harvest handling challenges (Tanzania’s 700,000-Ton Cashew Goal Faces Reality Check). Those constraints remain, yet the available data strongly supports a harvest that comfortably surpasses 600,000 tons, potentially setting a new national record.
For buyers, this scale of supply reshapes pricing expectations, purchasing strategies, and processing timelines entering 2026.
Quality Divergence Becomes a Defining Theme
While volume is rising, quality is far more uneven.
In Tanzania’s southern heartland (especially Mtwara and Lindi), auction officials report more lots arriving with high moisture content and low outturn, in the range of 42–44 lbs. These figures sit well below the premium 48–50 lb levels typically associated with top-grade Tanzanian RCN.
Traders confirm that high-quality lots remain competitive and attract buyers quickly, while inferior lots draw minimal interest and heavy price discounts.
This mirrors a global pattern observed throughout 2025: in multiple origins, premium RCN with 45–49 lb outturn captured premiums, while low-KOR nuts (39–43 lb) consistently underperformed (NAMAGRO).
The widening gap between high and low quality within Tanzania’s crop will increasingly determine processor margins and trader risk exposure.
Export Prices Hold Steady Despite the Surge in Supply
Even with rising volumes, RCN export prices have remained remarkably stable in the $1,720–1,750/MT CFR HCMC range.
Mid-November offers hovered around $1,730/MT, consistent with broader East African market signals and reflective of a market finding equilibrium after the early-season dislocations (Tanzania’s Cashew Auctions Open With Strong Start and Firm Prices, ACA reports).
This price stability suggests that buyers and sellers are adjusting not to a shortage or surplus, but to uncertainty: the crop may be enormous, but the quality variation and delayed start have injected caution into forward positions.
Buyers Take a Conservative, Selective Approach
If the crop is large and prices stable, why isn’t buying more aggressive?
Market behavior this season tells a clear story: buyers are cautious.
Across origins, processors have shifted toward hand-to-mouth purchasing, covering only immediate needs instead of building long-term positions. This pattern was observed earlier in 2025 in global market reports and is now visible again in Tanzania (African Cashew Alliance).
With such a large crop taking shape, importers prefer to:
- buy selectively, prioritizing high-quality lots
- avoid large commitments that could expose them to downward price pressure
- wait to see how quality evolves in December and January
- evaluate how quickly the market digests the early wave of supply
This behavior is not a sign of weak demand, it is a sign of strategic positioning in a season defined by both opportunity and risk.
Strategic Implications for Global Cashew Players
Tanzania’s trajectory this season has far-reaching implications beyond its borders:
1. Tanzania is increasingly influencing global pricing behavior
Volumes this large inevitably shape sentiment in India and Vietnam.
2. Quality variability creates windowing opportunities
High-grade lots will command premiums; buyers who can move decisively may capture margins unavailable later in the season.
3. Selective purchasing could compress processor margins
If poor-quality lots dominate in key regions, recovery costs rise.
4. Price softness later in the season cannot be ruled out
A continued surge in arrivals may pressure CFR values in Q1 2026.
5. Freight optimization becomes more important
Large export flows from East Africa will coincide with year-end congestion.
Conclusion: A Rapidly Expanding Crop in a Cautious Market
Tanzania’s 2025/26 cashew season is a study in contrasts: auction volumes rising faster than last year, supply pointing toward a record harvest, quality splitting sharply across regions, and buyers moving carefully despite stable prices.
The country’s growing role in the global RCN supply chain is unmistakable, but the season ahead will reward selectivity, timing, and close monitoring of incoming quality.
To stay ahead of weekly developments across Tanzania and the global cashew sector, from weather-driven yield signals to RCN pricing and auction behavior, visit our Market Insights page and subscribe to Rotterdam Commodity Trading’s weekly cashew updates. We deliver verified data, early indicators, and practical analysis to help traders, processors, and manufacturers navigate an increasingly complex market.
We use cookies to ensure you get the best experience on our website. For more information, please read our Privacy Policy.