The global cashew market is entering 2026 with a rare and strategically important combination: rising production volumes alongside structurally strong demand growth. Rather than being driven by short-term price cycles, the current expansion reflects deeper shifts across global production, processing capacity, and end-market consumption, shaping trade flows heading into 2026.
Recent data from the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC) confirms that this is not a temporary or regional phenomenon, but a globally interconnected market dynamic with direct implications for anyone involved in the market.
Global Production: INC Confirms Higher Output for 2025/26
According to the latest INC estimates, global raw cashew nut (RCN) production for the 2025/26 season is projected at approximately 5.53 million metric tons, representing an increase of around 3% year-on-year (INC).
This growth is unevenly distributed across origins:
- Africa remains the backbone of global supply, accounting for well over 60% of total RCN production, led by Côte d’Ivoire (~1.25 million tons), followed by Tanzania, Nigeria, Ghana, Benin, and other West and East African producers.
- India recorded a strong recovery year, with production estimated at ~725,000 tons, reinforcing its dual role as producer and consumer.
- Cambodia continues to expand rapidly, with output estimated near ~850,000 tons, driven by acreage growth and high-yield varieties.
- Vietnam, by contrast, is expected to see lower domestic production (~300,000 tons, –12% YoY), increasing its reliance on imported RCN.
Despite higher global output, the INC highlights that demand remains firm, particularly in China, the European Union, and the Middle East, where buyers continue to actively seek African-origin cashews.
From Raw Nuts to Kernels: Translating Production into Market-Relevant Supply
To assess whether rising production is sufficient to meet demand, global RCN output must be translated into kernel-equivalent volumes.
Kernel recovery rates vary by origin and quality, but industry practice (including INC reporting conventions) commonly applies a global average outturn of ~22% (range ~20–24%). This reflects a weighted average of higher-yield origins (e.g. Cambodia and select African lots) and lower-yield material.
Using this conservative and widely accepted assumption:
5.53 million tons of RCN equates to approximately 1.22 million tons of cashew kernels
This conversion is critical, as kernel-equivalent volume (not raw production) ultimately determines consumable supply and market balance.
Global Kernel Demand: Where the Market Is Absorbing Supply
Based on INC data, UN Comtrade trade flows, and apparent consumption estimates, global cashew kernel demand currently falls in the range of 1.2–1.3 million tons, broadly in line with available supply.
However, demand is highly concentrated:
- India is the world’s largest cashew consumer, absorbing an estimated 376,000 tons of kernels in 2024, or more than 30% of global demand (INC). India consumes the majority of the kernels it processes domestically, despite remaining a major exporter.
- The European Union, when viewed as a single market, collectively consumes approximately 280,000–320,000 tons per year, equivalent to ~25% of global kernel demand. While no individual EU country rivals the U.S. market on its own, aggregate EU consumption is structurally larger than that of the United States, a distinction often overlooked in country-level comparisons.
- The United States remains the largest single-country importer, consuming roughly 135,000–145,000 tons annually, or ~11–12% of global demand.
- China is the fastest-growing market. While official consumption figures were still modest in 2023 (~47,000 tons), kernel imports surged sharply in 2024, with Vietnam exporting ~115,000 tons to China alone, suggesting true consumption may now exceed 100,000–120,000 tons and continue rising rapidly.
- The Middle East (including Turkey, Saudi Arabia, UAE and surrounding markets) collectively consumes over an estimated 90,000 tons, with structurally rising demand in the Gulf region.
Taken together, India, the EU, and the United States account for roughly two-thirds of global kernel consumption, while Asia’s share continues to increase, driven primarily by India and China.
Vietnam: A Processing Hub Increasingly Dependent on Imported RCN
Vietnam remains the world’s leading cashew processor and exporter, but this position is increasingly built on imported raw material.
Domestic production covers approximately 12–14% of Vietnam’s total processing needs. In contrast, Vietnam imported approximately 2.49 million tons of RCN in 2024, meaning 80–85% of its raw input is sourced abroad.
Import dependency is not only structural, but also shifting in composition:
- Cambodia has become Vietnam’s largest single supplier. In 2024, Vietnam imported ~783,000 tons from Cambodia, accounting for 31.44% of total RCN imports during that period.
- African origins remain essential, accounting for the majority of Vietnam’s raw cashew imports, primarily from Côte d’Ivoire, Tanzania, Nigeria, Ghana, and Benin.
While Africa produces more than 3,3 million tons of RCN annually, a growing share is retained for domestic processing. Trade data shows that Vietnam alone imports roughly 1.7–1.9 million tons of African-origin RCN, while an additional ~400,000 tons flows primarily into India, with remaining volumes absorbed by local processing, regional trade, or inventories.
As African in-country processing expands and Vietnam’s domestic production stagnates, Vietnam’s dependence on Cambodian and African RCN is set to deepen, increasing exposure to origin-level disruptions and policy shifts.
Why Higher Production Has Not Softened the Market
Despite rising global output, supply and demand remain in a delicate balance.
Production growth is moderate, demand is structurally diversified, and processing capacity and logistics remain binding constraints. Moreover, a growing share of African production is retained for local processing, tightening export availability.
As a result, incremental shocks, whether weather-driven production losses or faster-than-expected demand growth in China or India, have the potential to quickly disrupt the balance and influence prices.
Conclusion: A Market Balanced on a Narrow Margin
The cashew market is not simply expanding, it is operating close to equilibrium.
With ~5.53 million tons of RCN translating into ~1.22 million tons of kernels, and consumption concentrated in a limited number of structurally strong markets, even modest shifts in supply or demand can have outsized price effects.
For stakeholders across the supply chain, this reinforces the importance of data-driven sourcing, origin diversification, and continuous market monitoring in an increasingly interconnected and sensitive global cashew market.
To stay ahead of weekly developments across global cashew production and demand, from INC-driven supply shifts and RCN-to-kernel dynamics to regional consumption trends and trade flows, visit our Market Insights page and subscribe to Rotterdam Commodity Trading’s Weekly Cashew Report. Our analysis combines verified market sources with practical, market-focused interpretation to help traders, processors, and manufacturers navigate an increasingly complex global cashew market.
We use cookies to ensure you get the best experience on our website. For more information, please read our Privacy Policy.