Vietnam’s Cashew Market at Year-End: High Throughput, High Costs, and Little Margin for Error

Vietnam closes 2025 with headline numbers that appear reassuring: export volumes remain strong, raw nut inflows are high, and processing capacity continues to operate at scale.
Yet the latest VINACAS December 2025 trade statistics show a market that is running hot, not comfortable.

Beneath the volumes lies a system facing structurally higher costs, deeper import dependence, and limited margin for error heading into 2026.

 

Exports Finish Strong; Volume Intact, Pricing Sensitive

In December 2025, Vietnam exported 73,425 metric tons of cashew kernels with a total export value of approximately USD 503.5 million, according to VINACAS export data.

For full-year 2025, Vietnam exported approximately 797,739 tons of cashew kernels, exceeding the official annual plan and marking a ~4% year-on-year increase in volume. Export value rose much faster, by roughly +18% YoY, supported by higher average FOB prices.

Average WW320 FOB Vietnam prices remained elevated throughout Q4, averaging roughly USD 3.7/lb in December, around +13% YoY. Price strength, however, increasingly reflected cost pass-through rather than margin expansion.

China remained Vietnam’s largest single destination in December, accounting for roughly 17% of export volume, followed by the United States (~13%), Singapore, and the European Union. Within the EU, the Netherlands continued to act as a key entry point.

 

 

 

Raw Nut Imports: Volume Is No Longer the Comfort Signal

Vietnam’s processing sector remains structurally dependent on imported raw cashew nuts (RCN).
While December data confirms continued inflows, the full-year picture reinforces the defining theme of 2025: processors secured more raw material, but at a substantially higher cost.

According to the final VINACAS 2025 import figures, Vietnam imported 3.12 million tons of RCN over the year, representing an increase of approximately +25% year-on-year. Import value, however, rose far more sharply, by roughly +48% YoY, reflecting persistently higher unit prices.

Crucially, this divergence between volume growth and value growth did not narrow in Q4, confirming that cost pressure remained intact through year-end.

Cambodia continued to function as Vietnam’s structural supply anchor, supplying close to 1.0 million tons YTD, while West African supply (particularly from Ivory Coast) remained volatile. Late-season rebounds followed months of disruption caused by export controls, inspections, and logistical friction.

The implication is clear:
raw nut availability exists, but cheap supply does not.

 

 

 

Kernel Imports Point to Selectivity, Not Stock-Building

Imported cashew kernels, typically used for blending, quality correction, or specific contract fulfillment, increased in certain late-year months. However, full-year kernel imports remained below 2024 levels, despite higher processing activity.

Average kernel import prices softened slightly in Q4 but remained historically elevated. This combination indicates procurement discipline, not expansion: processors focused on specific grades and contract needs rather than broad inventory accumulation.

This behavior is consistent with a market operating under margin pressure rather than one preparing for surplus.

 

A System Running at High Utilization

By year-end, Vietnam’s cashew industry was operating at high throughput with limited buffers:

• Raw material costs increased faster than kernel selling prices
• Freight, labor, and financing costs remained elevated
• Capacity utilization stayed high, leaving little operational flexibility

China’s expanding role as the dominant demand outlet helped absorb volumes displaced from other markets, but it also compressed pricing optionality, given higher price sensitivity compared to historical U.S. demand.

 

Why This Matters Going Into 2026

Vietnam enters 2026 with a system that is balanced, but fragile.

Performance will hinge on three interdependent variables:

1. Cambodia, where planted area is large but yield outcomes remain uncertain
2. West Africa, particularly Ivory Coast, where weather stress and policy risk persist
3. China, now the primary demand anchor, but highly price-elastic

Any disruption across one of these pillars would rapidly expose how tight the overall balance has become.

 

Conclusion: Volume Is No Longer the Story

Vietnam’s cashew sector demonstrated in 2025 that it can still move volume at scale.
What it did not demonstrate is cost relief.

With raw material prices structurally higher and sourcing risk increasingly concentrated, margin management, not export growth, will define success in 2026.

For traders, processors, and buyers alike, the takeaway is clear:

In today’s cashew market, volume without cost visibility is not security, it is exposure.

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