Vietnam’s Cashew Trade Rebounds in October — Strong Exports, Surprising Shifts in Raw Nut Supply

Vietnam’s cashew industry entered the final quarter of 2025 with renewed momentum, as October data reveals a powerful rebound in both kernel exports and raw cashew nut (RCN) imports. After a year marked by volatile trade flows, shifting demand patterns, and supply shocks across West Africa, the latest VINACAS figures suggest that Vietnam is stabilizing its position heading into the 2026 season.

But beneath the headline growth, the October reports also expose deep structural changes in Vietnam’s sourcing patterns and new dependencies that will shape global pricing well into next year.

 

Exports Surge: One of the Strongest Months of 2025

Vietnam exported 77,499 metric tons of cashew kernels in October, an increase of 11.8% year-on-year. Export turnover grew even faster, up 16.5% YoY to USD 529 million.

This makes October one of 2025’s best performing months, pushing year-to-date exports to 651,703 tons — virtually on par with last year (+0.19% YoY), despite weaker performance in the first half.

 

A Shift in Buyers: China Dominates Again

Vietnam’s top export destinations in October were:

• China: 15,888 t (20.5% of total share)
• United States: 10,123 t (13.1% of total share)
• Singapore: 8,248 t (10.6% of total share)

China’s commanding position confirms a structural trend: Vietnamese processors have fully compensated for reduced U.S. buying by redirecting flows eastward. The shift has been developing all year, and October’s numbers leave little doubt that 2025 marks a long-term re-alignment in global cashew trade.

 

Kernel Imports Rise Sharply — But Remain Lower Year-to-Date

Kernel imports, typically used for blending, quality corrections, or reprocessing, also saw a jump in October:

• 14,200 tons imported (+17.98% YoY)
• Value: USD 90.64 million (+15.71% YoY)

However, YTD kernel imports are still 13.3% lower than 2024.

This combination of higher import prices and reduced volumes suggests processors have become more selective, focusing on higher-margin export contracts and sourcing premium grades.

 

RCN Imports: Ivory Coast Returns as the Heavyweight

While October’s total RCN imports (184,256 t) were below the peaks seen earlier in the year, the month marked a major shift: Ivory Coast re-emerged as Vietnam’s dominant supplier after months of volatility.

Top RCN suppliers in October:

• Ivory Coast – 76,244 t (41.4% share)
• Nigeria – 18,829 t (10.2%)
• Ghana – 14,843 t (8.1%)
• Cambodia – 14,653 t (7.9%)

After months of volatility caused by export bans, slow inspections, and logistical bottlenecks, Ivory Coast has re-emerged forcefully in Q3 and Q4. The October surge aligns with earlier re-openings of the Ivorian export channel.

 

The Year Told a Very Different Story Before October

Ivory Coast’s 2025 YoY changes have been extreme:

• Some months saw declines of –70% to –82% YoY
• Others saw rebounds of +59% to +106% YoY

This irregular pattern hints at delayed border flows, temporary restrictions, and growing volumes moving off-book or through neighboring countries, patterns traders have reported since mid-year.

Cambodia, meanwhile, continues to play the role of Vietnam’s most reliable overland supplier, with October imports consistent with the broader trend of very large 2025 volumes.

 

What This Means for the Market

1. Processors are securing supply aggressively before 2026

With expectations of reduced West African production in 2026, particularly in Ivory Coast, the October spike in RCN imports points to early stock-building.

2. The China–Vietnam axis is now the industry’s main artery

China’s market share above 20% ensures that Vietnamese processors remain price-supported, even as U.S. imports lag behind 2023 and early 2024 levels.

3. Kernel export prices remain firm

October’s average export price of USD 6,826.64/ton was higher than last year (+4.20%).

Demand is clearly present, especially for WW320 and roasted products.

4. Supply risks for early 2026 remain elevated

Even with strong imports now, two critical uncertainties remain:

• Cambodia’s actual final crop size (acreage is large, yield still uncertain)
• Ivory Coast’s stressed trees after a dry 2025

Both could tighten the market significantly in Q1–Q2 2026.

 

Note: All figures presented in this report reflect trade conditions prior to the United States’ removal of reciprocal tariffs on November 13, 2025. While it is too early to quantify any impact, the policy shift may influence Vietnamese export dynamics in the final weeks of the year, particularly as U.S. buyers regain full duty-free access to cashew kernels. Market participants will be watching closely whether this renewed access supports additional late-Q4 shipments or simply reshapes demand heading into the 2026 season.

 

Conclusion: A Strong Finish to a Chaotic Year

October’s data shows a Vietnam that is finishing 2025 with strength, discipline, and strategic buying behavior. Kernel exports are on track to match last year’s record, Chinese demand remains robust, and processors are rapidly securing RCN before the next harvest cycle begins.

But the underlying volatility in African supply, especially Ivory Coast, suggests that the smooth surface of October’s numbers hides deeper structural risks for 2026.

For now, the message is clear:
Vietnam is back in full motion, but the global cashew market remains anything but predictable.

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