Weekly Cashew Report: Week 32 2025

Brazil

Weather: The weather outlook is mixed with slight increases in rainfall relative to averages in regions where conditions have been relatively dry, including Aquiraz, Beberibe, Campo Maior, Chapadinha, Mossoró, Piripiri, and São Luís.  Conversely, Ilhéus, Natal and Porto Seguro are seeing a reversal in precipitation. Rainfall was above average in May and June and now significantly below average.  Cashews Weather Information – CropGPT*

Forecast: Our current forecast is 294 kg/ha. This is based on rainfall and temperature in the first half of the season (generally drier this year hence down), and temperature at harvest time (yet to come online). The market predicts 320 kg/ha (down 11%), whereas we are saying down 18%.

2024: 358 kg/ha

2023: 289.5 kg/ha

News:  The outlook for 2025 remains bullish: exports are projected at USD 171.27M, growing to USD 206.38M by 2030 at 3.8% CAGR. Value-added products like cashew soda are launching nationally and internationally.

 

Indonesia

Weather: Mataram, Nusa Tenggara had noticeably cooler conditions this week (21.85°C compared to long-term average of 25.03°C). Other regions such as Mamuju Utara, Makassar and Jembrana saw precipitation drop significantly over LTA. Cashews Weather Information – CropGPT

Forecast: Our current forecast is 366 kg/ha. This is based on slightly lower fertiliser prices, offset by a potentially damagingly high Crop Moisture Index from the planting (flushing) phase. We will be watching the impact of pest infestation.

2024: Unknown

2023: 366 kg/ha.

News: Crops in Sumba and several eastern islands are experiencing serious pest attacks—mostly tea mosquito bugs—resulting in significant fruit drop. The pest outbreak is aggravated by severe droughts, with some areas recording over three months without rain, prompting warnings of lower 2025 yields.

 

Tanzania  

Weather: Mtwara, Lindi, and Bagamoyo continue to exhibit drier than usual conditions, but this is unlikely to negatively impact final yields. Temperatures are slightly below normal. Cashews Weather Information – CropGPT

Crop Forecast: Our current forecast is 559,000 t, a 6% increase from the 2025 harvest. This is based on an increase in area. The extension of the funding package that underpinned last season’s record yields, combined with higher-than-average early season rainfall, means yields should be comparable to the 2025 levels.

2024/2025: 528,000 t 

2023/2024: 311,000 t 

2022/2023: 240,158 t 

News:  Tanzania reports strong cashew harvests in 2025, with southern regions—especially Mtwara—contributing a record share to national output. There were no major new pest, disease, or weather disruptions reported in the last month; quality remains high.

Cashew Reports – Posts – CropGPT

 

*Side note: Once on the CropGPT website, select “Cashews” at the top left of the page to access all related reports and data in the sidebar.