Weekly Cashew Report: Week 41 2025

Benin

Weather: Marked dryness persisted across the northern/central belt: Parakou logged 18.1 mm vs 55.7 mm LTA (−38 mm, −68%), with similar shortfalls in Natitingou (24.9 mm vs 57.3 mm, −57%) and Abomey (22.3 mm vs 43.3 mm, −48%).  This extends last week’s north–central deficits; unlike last week’s wetter Abomey, the south also ran notably drier. Benin Weather Information – CropGPT*

Yield 2025 (harvest year): 430 kg/ha

Forecast 2026:  411 kg/ha (no change from last week).

 

Brazil

Weather: Coastal Bahia flipped wetter: Ilhéus 22.7 mm vs 13.6 mm LTA (+9.1 mm, +67%), while other coast sites were near norms. Inland Piauí stayed parched and notably hotter, with mean temps +2.4 to +2.6 °C above LTA at Piripiri (33.1 °C vs 30.7 °C) and Campo Maior (34.2 °C vs 31.6 °C).  Last week’s below-normal coast (e.g., Ilhéus/Natal) eased, but the inland heat signal strengthened. Brazil Weather Information – CropGPT

Yield 2024 (harvest year): 358 kg/ha

Forecast 2025: 290 to 300 kg/ha (no change from last week – expected to be off-year in alternate bearing cycle).

 

Cambodia

Weather: Several northeast/central districts swung drier versus LTA: Chhloung 43.3 mm vs 88.2 mm (−51%), Stueng Trang 42.0 mm vs 81.7 mm (−49%), and Sambour 46.5 mm vs 79.7 mm (−41%); temperatures were generally ~2 °C below average (e.g., Andoung Meas 24.5 °C vs 26.8 °C).  This is a notable reversal from last week’s “exceptionally wet” pockets in the northeast. Cambodia Weather Information – CropGPT

Production 2025 (harvest year): 850,000 tons

Forecast 2026: Still insufficient data following implementation of changes to government subsidies (no change from last week).

 

India

Weather: Konkan districts stayed much drier and cooler: Udupi 34.7 mm vs 77.6 mm (−55%), Dakshina Kannada 26.3 mm vs 79.9 mm (−67%), with mean temps 1.5–2 °C below LTA across Goa.  On the east coast, rainfall was materially above average: Srikakulam 103.6 mm vs 51.2 mm (+102%), Ganjam 92.3 mm vs 56.6 mm (+63%), and Puri 84.7 mm vs 62.5 mm (+36%).  Compared with last week (mixed on the east coast), the wet signal broadened and intensified from Odisha into north AP; Konkan coolness persisted. India Weather Information – CropGPT

Production 2025 (harvest year): ~800,000 tons

Forecast 2026: 786,000 tons (no change from last week).

 

Indonesia

Weather: Mixed but noteworthy shifts: West Nusa Tenggara cooled and dried (Mataram 16.1 mm vs 28.9 mm, −44%; mean −5.3 °C vs LTA), while Sulawesi turned wet—Mamuju Utara 98.2 mm vs 63.5 mm (+55%) and Makassar 57.2 mm vs 29.7 mm (+93%).
Bali/East Java leaned drier (e.g., Tabanan 19.2 mm vs 32.1 mm, −40%). Last week’s wet pulse in Mataram reversed, while Sulawesi strengthened on the wet side. Indonesia Weather Information – CropGPT

Yield 2023 (harvest year, 2024 not available): 366 kg/ha

Forecast 2025:  384 kg/ha (no change from last week).

Comment: The 2025 harvest is now underway, revealing sharp regional contrasts. East and West Nusa Tenggara report strong productivity around 550–580 kg/ha, according to provincial agriculture statistics and local market sources, while Sulawesi Tenggara, which represents nearly half of Indonesia’s cashew area, remains closer to 320 kg/ha (Sultra Provincial Government, 2025). When weighted nationally, these figures align with HSAT’s current forecast of 384 kg/ha, implying broadly stable output versus 2024.
Market observers (INC & local trade data, 2025) describe the crop as steady to slightly higher year-on-year, reflecting continued recovery after last season’s pest-related yield losses.

 

Ivory Coast

Weather: Broad rainfall deficits across key northern/central zones: Bondoukou (Zanzan) 37.5 mm vs 52.5 mm (−29%), Bouaké (Vallée du Bandama) 37.5 mm vs 49.8 mm (−25%), and Séguéla (Woroba) 42.0 mm vs 54.7 mm (−23%); Korhogo (Savanes) was modestly below LTA.  This contrasts with last week’s wetter Savanes; the pattern flipped to drier in the north. Ivory Coast Weather Information – CropGPT

Production 2025 (harvest year): 1,250,000 tons

Forecast 2026: Early season projections indicate a decrease of 5 to 10% (slightly up from last week’s estimate due to rainfall continuing to ease the prolonged dry spell).

 

Nigeria

Weather: East turned notably wetter while the southwest dried: Onitsha South 92.7 mm vs 50.1 mm (+85%) and Awka North 87.4 mm vs 64.4 mm (+36%); Oyo was sharply below normal (Ibadan NW 22.9 mm vs 47.7 mm, −52%) and Kogi also trended drier (Kabba/Bunu 33.8 mm vs 50.5 mm, −33%).  This builds on last week’s Onitsha outperformance and extends the wetness across parts of Anambra/Enugu, while southwest deficits deepen. Nigeria Weather Information – CropGPT

Yield 2026 (harvest year):  447 kg/ha (no change from last week).

 

Tanzania

Weather: South remained near seasonal with light totals, but the northeast coast ran materially drier: Tanga 7.1 mm vs 15.2 mm (−53%), Muheza 9.3 mm vs 22.6 mm (−59%), Bagamoyo 6.5 mm vs 14.9 mm (−57%), and Kibaha 6.0 mm vs 13.8 mm (−56%).
This largely mirrors last week’s dry Tanga–Muheza corridor. Tanzania Weather Information – CropGPT

Production 2025 (harvest year): 528,000 tonnes

Forecast 2026:  560,000 tonnes (no change from last week).

 

Vietnam

Weather: Key provinces shifted drier and cooler versus last week’s widespread rainfall surpluses: Đồng Xoài (Bình Phước) 58.1 mm vs 94.2 mm (−38%) and Long Khánh (Đồng Nai) 41.8 mm vs 94.7 mm (−56%); in the Central Highlands, Buôn Ma Thuột 28.3 mm vs 52.5 mm (−46%) and Pleiku 35.8 mm vs 93.2 mm (−62%).  Mean temps were 2–3 °C below LTA in these hubs (e.g., Đồng Xoài 24.9 °C vs 27.2 °C). Vietnam Weather Information – CropGPT

Yield 2025 (harvest year): 1,200 kg/ha

Forecast 2026: 1,453 kg/ha (no change from last week).

 

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