Category: Market Insights

A 2026–27 “Super El Niño” is not a forecast yet — but cashew markets should already be watching

Official agencies now broadly expect El Niño to develop in 2026. But for the cashew market, the real risk is not a guaranteed global supply shock. It is a tighter margin for error across Asia, Africa and Brazil at the same time. Recent headlines about a possible “Super El Niño” have started to attract attention […]

Cambodia Dominates, China Returns: Vietnam’s Cashew Sector Pushes Further Ahead in April

Vietnam’s cashew sector moved into April with even more volume, but not with a simpler margin story. After January’s export surge, February’s recalibration and March’s reacceleration, April confirmed that the sector is now running at full speed again. The latest VINACAS figures show Vietnam exported 77,136 metric tons of semi-processed cashew kernels in April 2026, […]

Cambodia Floods In, FOB Softens: Vietnam’s Cashew Sector Reaccelerates in March

Vietnam’s cashew sector did not stay in February’s recalibration mode for long. After January’s export burst and February’s pause, March brought a sharp reacceleration in both exports and imports. Kernel shipments rebounded to 57,581 metric tons, while raw cashew nut imports surged to 475,684 tons. The defining change was on the supply side: Cambodia moved […]

Cambodia Returns, Exports Cool: Vietnam’s Cashew Sector Recalibrates in February

Vietnam’s cashew sector entered February with a different character than its explosive January opening. The latest VINACAS figures show a market in recalibration: kernel exports dipped sharply compared to January’s surge, Cambodia returned to the supply picture in force, and the sourcing map shifted significantly as West African origins continued to ramp up volumes ahead […]

Unseasonal Rainfall and Atmospheric Anomalies Threaten Global Cashew Supply as Vietnam and Ivory Coast Crop Signals Weaken

A convergence of severe weather anomalies across the world’s primary cashew-producing hubs is heightening risks for the 2026 global harvest. From the record-breaking, unseasonal rains in Vietnam’s “cashew capital” to deteriorating harvest conditions in Ivory Coast, the market is facing a synchronized disruption that threatens both raw nut availability and kernel quality. With early price […]

2026 Starts With a Bang: Vietnam’s Cashew Exports Surge as the Supply Map Shifts

Vietnam’s cashew sector has opened 2026 with the kind of January that demands attention. The latest VINACAS figures show an industry firing on all cylinders: kernel exports surged over 42% year-on-year, raw nut imports jumped 36%, and the entire supply chain appears to be running at full capacity. But the headline numbers conceal a story […]

Supreme Court Slashes Trump’s IEEPA Tariffs: What Nut Traders Need to Know

In a landmark 6-3 decision that has sent shockwaves through global commodity markets, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled Friday that President Donald Trump’s sweeping “emergency” tariffs are illegal (CNN). While the White House has already launched a “Plan B” to keep trade barriers in place, the ruling creates an immediate, and potentially lucrative, divergence for […]

Weather Risks in Ivory Coast: Cashew Harvest Under Pressure from Unusual Humidity

In early February, we already pointed to increasing risks for early cashew supply from Ivory Coast (Cashew Harvest Nears as Weather Signals Raise Early Supply Risks in Ivory Coast). At the time, the primary concern was persistent dryness across several production zones during a crucial period of flowering and nut setting, which jeopardized effective yields […]

Cashew Harvest Nears as Weather Signals Raise Early Supply Risks in Ivory Coast

As the 2026 cashew harvest approaches across Asia and West Africa, early field and weather signals point to growing divergence between origins, with Ivory Coast emerging as a near-term risk point. According to CropGPT, conditions in Ivory Coast have deteriorated more than previously expected during the final pre-harvest phase. Several producing zones experienced prolonged dryness […]

More Volume, Less Control: Tanzania’s Cashew Growth Tests Its Own System

Tanzania’s Cashew Boom Looks Convincing, But Can the System Keep Up? Tanzania’s cashew sector is widely framed as one of Africa’s clearest growth stories.Industry reports point to expanding production, rising export earnings, and a central auction system that has lifted farm-gate prices to record levels. On the surface, the narrative is simple: more volume, better […]